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10 Tracks Predictions For 2016

A look into the salt encrusted crystal ball to find out what lies ahead for our beloved sport in 2016.

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Happy New Year valued Tracks reader! 2015 is gone, booted unceremoniously out of the door like an unwanted party guest by 2016. That’s right the headlines and stories that made surfing in 2015 are now little more than the wrapping for fish and chips purchased to ease a new years hangover. ADS’ World title – Pffff … who? Kelly’s wave pool … wasn’t that cute.

There’s no time for looking in the rear vision mirror. The kingly sport of wave riding moves at a pace faster than white lightning and we must stay focused on what lay ahead. Which is precisely why we’ve unshackled Tracks’ in-house surfing psychic for a look at what’s in store for the year that is 2016.

There are some bold calls in here, and you may snort in derision while reading, but when this all plays out to script don’t forget where you read it first.

Also, feel free to leave your own predictions in the comments below.

All photos: Joli

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The rookie class of 2016 will do damage.

Caio Ibelli, Jack Freestone, Connor Coffin, Ryan Callinan, Kanoa Igarashi & Davey Cathels – mmm, mmm! not for a long while have we had a bunch of newbies this appetising for surf fans. And Tracks wagers these surfers are licking their lips ready to eat some entrenched and jaded lower rung tour vets alive. Many and varied in their approaches they will make waves at the majority of tour spots

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The waves will be glorious!

It seems that for too many years now the waves on tour just haven’t lived up to expectation. Tiny tubeless Snapper, burgery Bells, bland Brazil etc. Whether this is an issue of the contest format taking too many days to complete is another issue, but Tracks’ surfing psychic has told me he’s got an old familiar twinge in his right knee, and that means the waves in 2016 will pump!

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Overcrowding reaches flashpoint.

A black cloud lay on the horizon. Crowds at Snapper reach saturation point and an issue will occur, be it violence, a tragic accident or something we can’t forsee. But it will make headlines, then a courtroom, then the government will be forced to act. Let’s just hope it’s a roll out of pumping artificial reefs rather than red tape choking the surf. Behave yourselves up there.

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Kelly Slater will actually retire.

This one has appeared in the Tracks crystal ball before, in fact every year since about 2005 I think. But we can feel it in our bones. Kelly will give the WSL one more disjointed season of service before moving on to fry bigger fish, i.e. closing the deal to have his technology utilised when surfing is accepted to the Olympics and to host the first artificial WSL tour stop. Which brings me to …

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The WSL will announce an artificial wave tour stop via Kelly Slater.

What I said in the intro about Kelly’s artificial wave pool being forgotten isn’t true. Something like that and its implications for surfing cannot be ignored. It will be the first part of the plan to open the landlocked youth to the wonders of surfing … The psychic can smell the money and ratings from here!

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An Australian changing of the guard will occur.

The psychic was mystified at the lack of retirement announcements from the Australian contingent of the tour at the end of 2015. Bede Durbidge, Parko, Taj, Otton, Ace? There are a bunch of Aussies who are right on the cusp of retirement, and the psychic has the feeling that for the most part they’ll all go together at the end of 2016. Mick is just too good, he’s got another title in him and will lead the charge on an Aussie depleted tour.

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Mick and the Brazilians will duke it out again.

The Brazilians have not only smelt blood, they have spilled it. Their appetite for the World Title is unmatched on tour right now, and two consecutive world titles can attest to that. But there is one man who sees to snatch it away from them … Mick Fanning. Once again the Aussie and the Brazilians will battle it out. But without his closest mates on tour (see previous prediction) will Mick have enough support to help fend them off?

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American surfing is in strife.

The psychic tells us that American surfing will continue to go down the drain. They’re paid too much, have it too easy and don’t have the fire to be the best in the world. Who will step up in the absence of Kelly Slater? Is it you Nat Young? Or perhaps it is you Kolohe, you little rascal? America is crying out for a true stars and stripes surfing hero.

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Carissa Moore will win again.

The psychic lost his shit over Carissa’s form during the Hawaiian season. I mean, she put most men to shame with her clinic during the Women’s heat at Pipe. There is only one that may challenge her for the title next year – the lovely Steph Gilmore. Can she overcome injury and give Carissa a run for her money? A long shot says the psychic.

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A lot of surfers will get tubed and not even care about the tour.

That’s right, perhaps the boldest prediction of all from the psychic. The bigger proportion of surfers will continue to surf, get tubed, kook it and have a bloody good time without care nor concern for the professional surfing world, and that’s alright with the psychic and with Tracks.

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A bi-monthly eclectic tome of tangible surfing goodness that celebrates all things surfing, delivered to your door!
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Your portal to cultural events happening in and around the surfing sphere.
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