Bottle crunches the numbers and tells you who is most likely to win the Quiksilver Pro
Hopefully you legends have had enough time to come down after last week’s event at Trestles. What an epic contest it was, Jordy captured his first World tour victory for the 2014 and John John Florence showed us that it is humanly possible to surf a wave like a skate park.
With only three events remaining on the calendar it’s time to get down and dirty like Hugh Hefner. Slater managed to snivel a few cheeky points on Medina’s monstrous lead. However, it’s going take a lot more than that. Kelly has been in this predicament many times in his career and I will bet my last brass razoo he has already crunched the numbers. He knows exactly what he has to do to claim his 12th World Title.
I am struggling with my predictions for the Quiksilver Pro. I think anything can happen in these French beach breaks, they are as unpredictable as Lindsay Lohan’s sex life. After pondering on it for a while, I have decided to go back into the archives, finding previous champions that have found success over the last decade.
Interestingly as unpredictable the beach breaks are in France, the statistics on overall dominance at the event is quite astounding. So rather than giving my opinion (which I think is ripping) on who will go onto win the event I give you the statistics that have counted over the past ten years and you can decide for yourself who is most likely to take out the event for 2014.
Keep in mind my statistics are based on results quarterfinal results or better. I have not considered the number of athletes from every region. Just in case you get bored with statistics, I have slipped in a few fun facts about France.
Based on the last decade, Kelly Slater has a 90% chance of making the quarterfinals or better. However if you are picking Kelly for the win, think again because he has only won the event once, giving him an 11% chance of winning.
Over the last decade 84% of the athletes who have got a 5th place or better have been regular footers. (I understand there are less goofys on tour)
French Fact: The distress code “mayday” comes from the French for help me. (M’Aide)
Joel Parkinson has had great success in France, three semifinal appearances and one victory, giving him a 40% chance of a 5th place or better. However, with that one win under his belt, he has better odds than Kelly to win.
Gabriel Medina is the only goofy footer to win the Quiky Pro in the last ten years. Giving the Goofys a 10% chance to take out the event.
French Fact: Croissants were invented in Austria.
Since John John Florence has been on tour he has accumulated a 5th or better in France. Ladies and gents, that’s a 100% strike rate. Problem is that this little freak is yet to win. You do the maths.
Experience on tour has prevailed in the past when it comes to France. Wildcards are yet to be sprayed by fake Dom Perignon on the podium. If you have money on Dane Reynolds to upset the applecart, the odds are looking pretty grim.
French Fact: In 1386, a pig was hung in France for the murder of a child.
Back in 2011 Gabriel snatched the snails and frog legs from underneath everyone, winning on French soil. He is the only rookie to have won this event in the last decade. On top of that, he placed 2nd last year and made another quarterfinal. Medina has 100% strike rate for getting a 5th place or better.
Australians have dominated in France, winning six out of ten Finals, giving the Aussies a 60% chance to win the event. USA has had three victories, two of those wins, are owned by our long lost brother Andy Irons back in 2004 and 2005. Brazil has a bit of catching up to do sitting on just the one win.
French Fact: If you are feeling a bit parched from all the ham and cheese baguettes, beers are available from McDonalds in France.
Mick Fanning has the best odds to win the event. He has won the event four times and placed 2nd back in 2006. That gives the 3x World Champ an 80% chance of winning if he makes it to the quarterfinals. This is Mick’s most favourable event on tour.
If Jordy Smith wins, there’s a 100% chance the ASP will fine him $50,000, if he wears his Red Bull cap on the podium again.
Sorry to say, but the European’s statistics are looking as good as a 90 year-old’s hemorrhoids. Over the last decade there has only been three athletes (Thiago Pires, Michel Bourez, Patrick Beven) pulling their weight. Giving them a 6.25% chance of making the quarterfinals or better. Lets hope ‘The Spartan’ unleashes some more brutality and bumps up these poor stats.
French Facts: One punishment for an adulterous wife in medieval France was to make her chase a chicken through town naked.
Going off the stats, our pudgy mate from Western Australia, Taj Burrow has a 50% chance of getting a 5th place or better, giving him some cracking odds.
French Fact: I am 98% finished this post.
There you have it, a few crucial statistics and some French trivia. Hopefully I didn’t confuse you as much as I confused myself. Personally, I want to see Jeremy Flores dig his way out of the trenches and take a win on his home turf. But looking at the stats I would have a better chance scoring a Tinder date with the Queen of England.
Until next time, Mangez bien, riez souvent, aimez beaucoup. Translation “Eat well, laugh often, love abundantly.”